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Only 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day went kind of poorly for him, where the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year backed the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added many conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.