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At first, the former US president seemed to take a strong approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing warnings of "significant ramifications" during the summer if Russia's president continued hindering peace negotiations, Trump ultimately introduced major sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously affected Putin's capability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

However, via his latest detailed peace initiative for the conflict, which was drafted by US and Russian officials without Ukrainian or European involvement, he has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Aggression

This proposal would in practice benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Although strong proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually undermine that essential autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his corporate past, Trump seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, as if handing Putin a portion of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the ruler. But, Russia's war is not merely about dominating a destroyed region of economically weakened area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear desire to weaken it so it stops acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the accountable governance that his increasing dictatorship prevents them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in position the currently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would require the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk region. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unable to seize in over a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously weakened.

The area is the site of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that represent a key impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a clear path to Kyiv if he later choose to restart the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate future fighting simpler for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan imposes no similar constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, the proposal states: "Every extremist belief system and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump places no obligation that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding votes in his own country.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the proposal has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that Putin has breached similar agreements in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of seized territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – how should anyone have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on international protection assurances. While the proposal promises a "immediate coordinated defense action" should the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars vary from unclear to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from stationing troops on the nation's land, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Russia from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would offer the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "serious, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. Yet in contrast to a capable national defense – the nation's best deterrent against additional invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, such as Trump, to act militarily to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not