Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
