🔗 Share this article

Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.